Oscar Nominations 2012: Who Will Win? Who Should Win? Who is Demian Bichir?

It’s a crazy awards season, folks. This year, the list of films and actors that would be nominated for Oscars wasn’t as glaringly obvious as it’s been in years past. There are so many “very good” films, and not the usual stack of five or six great ones to choose from.  We believe the nominees are more exciting this year than ever, as many more films were in contention for the coveted nominee spots. In fact, several films that critics were sure would be included were almost completely left out (Young Adult, Drive), and there were films that no one thought would be included that were (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close…this year’s The Blind Side. Our theory is that old white men in the Academy have a weird thing for Sandra Bullock). The Oscars, thanks to the recent, confusing addition of many smaller films and indie releases getting big, critical praise, as well as the decreasing relevance of the Golden-Globes-as-Oscar-predictor, are pretty up in the air, and as movie fans with a vested interest in watching Hollywood react to its own, incestuous, self-congratulatory traditions,  who could ask for anything more?

So with that, Knickerbocker Ledger’s two self-proclaimed resident People Who Like To Tell You Their Opinions About Movies, Cait Rooney and Robin Zlotnick, give you our Oscar Predictions…

Best Motion Picture of the Year:

• The Artist  (2011): Thomas Langmann
• The Descendants (2011): Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
• Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011): Scott Rudin
• The Help (2011): Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan
• Hugo (2011/II): Graham King, Martin Scorsese
• Midnight in Paris (2011): Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum
• Moneyball (2011): Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt
• The Tree of Life (2011): Nominees to be determined
• War Horse (2011): Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy

Cait:

WHAT WILL WIN: In all reality this category is only split between two contenders. Awards darling The Artist, while without a large box office draw, has the potential to steam roll any and all competition on awards night. The only movie that could potentially best this silent gem is the man, the myth, the legend… The Clooney. George Clooney has long been a favorite of the Academy and his work in the critically acclaimed The Descendants could give The Artist a real run for it’s money. For your office pool, bet on The Artist to take home the nights top prize.

WHAT SHOULD WIN:  While The Artist revisits a beautiful time in film making, Midnight in Paris takes that golden era and flips the coin, allowing us to see through a nostalgic yet critical lens only Woody Allen could create. Propelled forward by a truly exceptional performance by Owen Wilson as well as a litany of phenomenal supporting actors, Midnight in Paris is the kind of film that will ultimately be overlooked come awards night, regardless of how deserving it truly is.

SNUBBED: Without falling into the pattern set before me by so many other publications, I will resist the opportunity to rant about how undeserving Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is of even being mentioned in the same breath as these other movies. Instead I’ll mention how disappointed I was at 50/50 being overlooked. Joseph Gordon Levitt is about to have a very Ryan Gosling career explosion starting with this pitch perfect performance.

Robin:

WHAT WILL WIN: The Artist. In this case, I think the Golden Globes was right. The love for this beautiful film has only been growing since that super-trained little Jack Russell graced the Golden Globes stage, and I don’t think it’ll let up.

WHAT SHOULD WIN: The Artist. My favorite film of the year, by far. Touching and funny and sad and captivating, The Artist is a somehow truly innovative homage to silent films. The acting is brilliant, the story, classic yet modern, and the dog is just phenomenal. It’s got my obviously very influential vote.

SNUBBED: Though Drive was met with critical praise, for some reason, it was never really talked about in consideration for Best Picture (only Albert Brooks for supporting actor, a travesty we will get to later). With what I believe the second least amount of talking in a movie this year, it is a really fantastic, noirish film, and I’m not quite surprised that it was overlooked for Best Picture, but it would have been nice to see it. Certainly, it deserves it more than Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:

• Demián Bichir for A Better Life (2011)
• George Clooney for The Descendants (2011)
• Jean Dujardin for The Artist (2011)
• Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011)
• Brad Pitt for Moneyball (2011)

Cait:

WHO WILL WIN: Expect another charming and charismatic acceptance speech by Jean Dujardin for this win. I told you The Artist was going to steam roll everything!

WHO SHOULD WIN: While I understand the attention paid to both Clooney and Dujardin in this category, my vote goes to the impressive performance wielded by Brad Pitt. Even those who may not be baseball fans (shame on you, it’s America’s past time!) will be charmed by Pitt’s everlasting ease and control on screen.

SNUBBED: If there ever was a category with glaring omissions it is this one! Michael Fassbender gave the performance of is career in Shame and yet nobody seems to notice. Then again he doesnt have it half as bad as Michael Shannon who has been snubbed all season for his gut wrenching performance in Take Shelter as well as his continuously epic performance on Boardwalk Empire… but that is another post entirely.

Robin:

WHO WILL WIN: George Clooney?  This is a tough one. I am hesitant to go with Clooney because I think his role in The Descendants, while performed well, wasn’t of the super challenging, personal-transformation type that usually wins Oscars.  I feel the same way about Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; while it is a great performance, it is still understated. On a personal note, I am ecstatic that Gary Oldman has finally been nominated. Love that man and everything he does.  Just don’t think this is his year to win.  He’ll be back though. I’m going to say they’ll give it to George because they’ll be at a loss for what else to do.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Jean Dujardin BECAME a silent movie star. He not only embodied the physicality of the time and style, he was a complex and and intensely human character, a “washed-up” type that yes, we’ve seen before, (the fact that the role is sort of a “type” is one reason I don’t think he’ll get the win) but no, has never been played with such clear confusion and frustration – Dujardin gives the role such unending sympathy without saying a word (the silent thing is another reason I don’t think he’ll get it). Maybe they’ll give it to Demian Bichir and everyone will be confused and no one will care (Sorry, it’s the truth. I’m sure his performance in that movie that definitely exists was really great). Man, these Oscars are going to be fun.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:

• Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs (2011)
• Viola Davis for The Help (2011)
• Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011)
• Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady (2011)
• Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn (2011)

Cait:

WHO WILL WIN: Meryl. The Iron Lady, while not an overall spectacular film, is purely a vehicle with which to watch Streep in her element. The woman is gifted beyond measure in creating, and in this case replicating, a person’s likeness down to her very core. Hands down this will go to Meryl, if not for yet another tour de force performance, than for the fact that they Academy still feels bad for Out of Africa.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis makes The Help. Without her (and Octavia Spencer for that matter), this film would have been pure fluff. She is clearly a phenomenal actress, carrying much of the weight of the film in her perfect expressions from scene to scene. Though she will have to wait another year to receive her statue, she has done more than earn it at this point.

Robin:

WHO WILL WIN: Meryl. The Academy is, I’m sure, just exhausted, and this is one category no one will complain about.  Streep is a safe bet, and in all honesty, she probably deserves it just as much as the next person, so they’re just going to give it to her and tell everyone to shut up.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Glenn Close, though a phenomenal actress, could not conceal her disappointment at the Globes when she didn’t win for Albert Nobbs, the passion project that she spent years and years on.  She put so much into that film and her performance is of the challenging, personal-transformation type that usually wins Oscars.  Just because Meryl made palatable a dragging political film doesn’t mean she should necessarily win. Close is just as great in Nobbs and wants it a hell of a lot more.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:

• Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn (2011)
• Jonah Hill for Moneyball (2011)
• Nick Nolte for Warrior (2011)
• Christopher Plummer for Beginners (2010)
• Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011)

Cait:

WHO WILL WIN: Christopher Plummer is a Hollywood institution without a statue to his name. How this happened, few can understand, but expect this legend to take home the Oscar without fail. His performance in Beginners is the stuff the Academy salivates over, and the fact that such a revered actor is up in this category almost insures him a win.

WHO SHOULD WIN: While I love that Gilderoy Lockheart himself was nominated for an Oscar, my vote goes for the underrated Nick Nolte. Warrior is one of those films that manages to fly under the radar for no discernible reason. Epic real world fight sequences? We got em! Handsome leading man? There’s two! Performances full of emotional depth? In spades! Nolte deserves much more than the nomination, with a career righting performance full of range and true heart.

SNUBBED: I honestly was not as sold on Drive as apparently every other movie reviewer was, but I do agree in the general outrage at the lack of nomination for Albert Brooks. It took me a few moments to realize that this brutal mob boss also voiced Marlin from Finding Nemo, just another testament to the range Brooks has.

Robin:

WHO WILL WIN: Christopher Plummer.  He was just great in Beginners as the recently out-of-the-closet, dying father of Ewan McGregor, absolutely wonderful.  This seems like a potentially predictable category, but who knows this year? Maybe they’ll turn around and give it to Nick Nolte for that MMA movie no one saw.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Umm…Albert Brooks. Talk about snubs. The man is fantastic in Drive. Yes, he’s “Albert Brooksian,” but I would give that man an Oscar for being himself.  He’s the best. Should have been him. Or the dog from The Artist. One of the most heartbreaking and heroic performances this year. I’m a little bit not kidding.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:

• Bérénice Bejo for The Artist (2011)
• Jessica Chastain for The Help (2011)
• Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids (2011)
• Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs (2011)
• Octavia Spencer for The Help (2011)

Cait:

WHO WILL WIN: While many will tell you Octavia Spencer is a lock for this award, the Oscars have a history of mixing things up in the Supporting Actress category (see Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny). Expect a potential McCarthy upset!

WHO SHOULD WIN: Melissa McCarthy has made serious strides since her days at the Dragon Fly Inn, but this award belongs to Octavia Spencer. Though the Golden Globes is no longer an accurate predictor for which way the Academy will go, hopefully this is one of the few instances they find themselves aligning.

Robin:

WHO WILL WIN: Octavia Spencer. I almost took a leap and said they might actually give it to Melissa McCarthy, but I don’t know if the Academy is ready to hand an Oscar over to a performance with that level of grossness involved. That being said…

WHO SHOULD WIN: MELISSA MCCARTHY. Hands down. Unbelievably happy that she got nominated. She deserves it 100%. Forget that Bridesmaids was a breakthrough for “female comedy;” I don’t want to talk about how women in comedy are finally being appreciated. Can we just discuss the utter transformation of McCarthy into one of the most hilariously uncomfortable to watch yet somehow wholly sympathetic characters maybe ever?  She is brilliant in Bridesmaids, a movie I really enjoyed (but don’t necessarily consider “snubbed” for Best Picture).  McCarthy’s nomination, however, is absolutely fully deserved, and I truly hope the Academy is brave enough to reward the most emotionally complex going-to-the-bathroom-in-a-sink scene ever to be put on film.

Best Achievement in Directing:

• Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris (2011)
• Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (2011)
• Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life (2011)
• Alexander Payne for The Descendants (2011)
• Martin Scorsese for Hugo (2011/II)

Cait:

WHO WILL WIN: While Marty is loved by Hollywood, he has not universally been a top earner when it comes to Oscar season. Expect another win for The Artist.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Props to the Academy for the nod to Terrence Malick. While The Tree of Life performed modestly at the box office, it was still met with a great deal of much deserved critical acclaim. The same goes for Scorsese and his breathtaking film Hugo. At the end of the day though, top honors go to Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist.

SNUBBED: What? No love for Spielberg? And I’m not even talking about War Horse, but the far more deserving Adventures of Tintin! (A film so glaringly snubbed…but I digress).

Robin:

WHO WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Michel Hazanavicius. And as much as the little French man deserves it and will appreciate it, I bet you they still don’t give him as much speech time as they give everyone else.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:

• The Artist (2011): Michel Hazanavicius
• Bridesmaids (2011): Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo
• Margin Call (2011): J.C. Chandor
• Midnight in Paris (2011): Woody Allen
• A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi

Cait:

WHAT WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Hands down, Midnight in Paris. The dialogue and interactions among characters is what drives this movie above the rest. Delivered beautifully by a stellar cast, this screenplay is one that will remain timeless. Plus it doesn’t hurt that Woody is an Academy favorite and this is his highest grossing film to date. As much as I jumped for joy that Kristin Wiig now has an Oscar nomination to her name, I just don’t think this is the year that the Academy hands over a statue to a comedy where a woman defecates into a sink, but hey, that’s just me. Stranger things have happened. Lest we forget, we gave Ben Affleck an Oscar.

Robin:

WHAT WILL WIN: Let me just say, look at this category, and count the comedies! There are more than one! Sort of…I don’t know if they’ll give it to The Artist. I think most people will be confused about the idea of awarding a screenplay Oscar to a movie with no dialogue. In which case, I’m going to say they may give it to Midnight in Paris, because Woody Allen should get awarded in some way, and he’s not going to win Best Picture or Best Director.

WHAT SHOULD WIN: Midnight in Paris. As much as I laughed at Bridesmaids and am so happy that Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo were nominated, it’s not an Oscar script.  It has nothing to do with it being a comedy. Because it was so funny, I think everyone gleefully overlooked some tenuous character moments and slight missteps in tone and story. But if it wins, hey, score one for the team.  The team meaning “comedy geniuses,” which clearly, is a team of which I am a member…I’m going to stop now.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published:

• The Descendants (2011): Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
• Hugo (2011/II): John Logan
• The Ides of March (2011): George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
• Moneyball (2011): Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011): Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan

Cait:

WHAT WILL WIN: The Descendants. It’s not taking home Best Picture or Best Director, so part of me truly believes that this will be the Academy’s way of apologizing. And I’m okay with that. Why? Because it’s totally deserving and every part of me wants to see Jim Rash on stage telling NBC to suck it for pulling Community. VINDICATION! DEAN PELTON FOREVER!

WHAT SHOULD WIN: I am a card carrying member of the Church of Sorkin. Few can write witty, fast paced, jam packed dialogue like him and I’m a firm believer that Moneyball would have greatly suffered without a lightning quick script. My vote is for Aaron Sorkin and clan for making baseball statistics sound cool!

Robin:

WHAT WILL WIN: The Descendants. I did like that script a lot. And I just want to see Jim Rash win an Oscar, because in my irrational mind, that will be a symbolic win for Community as well.

WHAT SHOULD WIN: No one else loves Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy as much as I do. I thought the script was phenomenal.  Subtle and complex yet accessible, and so British! Almost nothing actually happens in that movie, and still I was gripped entirely, eyes glued to the screen, watching Gary Oldman and Benedict Cumberbatch slowly work through a deep current of betrayal, with very few actually expository passages.  I believe I’m in the minority here, but I loved that screenplay.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year:

• A Cat in Paris (2010): Alain Gagnol, Jean-Loup Felicioli
• Chico & Rita (2010): Fernando Trueba, Javier Mariscal
• Kung Fu Panda 2 (2011): Jennifer Yuh
• Puss in Boots (2011): Chris Miller
• Rango (2011): Gore Verbinski

Cait: 

WHAT WILL WIN: Rango….because everything else is ridiculous.

WHAT SHOULD WIN: Rango….because…..in all seriousness…nothing else is worth it.

SNUBBED: Okay this is the time for me to rant about The Adventures of Tin Tin… Brace yourself. Skip ahead now, its going to be bad. Okay. SERIOUSLY!?! REALLY!?!?! It’s not like there were a plethora of movies to choose from Academy! Pixar didnt churn out a heartwarming story about super heroes or toys or fish this year so it’s not like you had that going for you! Two of the greatest adapters of stories come together to create what could called nothing short of a aesthtic masterpiece and you say, “Eh, let’s take the one with the sassy latin cat and Jack Black’s yearly paycheck.” Spectacular. But really, I digress. At the end of the day, nobody can really understand why TinTin was omitted, but it’s really the most offensive oversight the Academy made. From the snappy dialogue to the visually astounding world Spielberg and Jackson crafted from Herge’s original comics, TinTin is one of those rare romps that should be taking home every prize in site. So again, I ask you, REALLY?

Robin:

WHAT WILL WIN: One of the weird ones no one’s ever heard of.

WHAT SHOULD WIN: Rango. It was great. I actually wrote a review of it for this very website! And talked about how great it is! You can read it here.

The rest of the nominees…

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year:

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